The Donald Trump administration will announce this Monday what has been described as its most comprehensive attack to date on the Iranian economy, consisting of a package of measures aimed at isolating Iran from the rest of the world.
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This was previewed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times ahead of his press conference this Monday, where he is expected to reveal details about the U.S. pressure campaign on Tehran at a time when negotiations to end the military conflict between the United States and Iran remain stalled.
“The world must understand that our goal is to cut off all economic support that sustains the tyrannical regime until Tehran is left alone,” said Bessent.
Although the Trump administration has presented this initiative as the start of an economic apocalypse for Iran, in practice — the New York Times indicated — it is unclear what more the United States can do to further destabilize the Iranian economy. The Republican president already carried out a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran during his first term and, earlier this year, enacted a package of measures called Operation Economic Fury.
And as economic pressure increases, the United States must also weigh the potential for retaliation in the form of higher energy prices or the risk of exacerbating tensions with China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil, the newspaper added.
According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the Asian giant recorded bilateral trade with Iran of $9.96 billion in 2025, a figure that does not include approximately $31.2 billion in Iranian oil shipments.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department, China’s purchases of Iranian oil have been a crucial lifeline for Tehran, representing about 90% of its crude sales.
“Those who support Iran buy and transport its oil,” Bessent wrote in the Financial Times, adding: “They turn a blind eye to maritime fuel transfers and the illicit use of their banks, all while hiding the extent of their complicity.”
Bessent, along with President Trump, has implied that the new initiative will include greater coordination between the United States and its allies to weaken the Iranian economy. It could include so-called secondary sanctions against those who continue to do business with Iran.
“At dawn begins an economic D-day: the greatest financial offensive ever orchestrated against an adversary,” Bessent wrote in a social media post Sunday night. “The President has created the conditions to use all agencies, all authorities, and all actions that many assumed we would never resort to.”
According to The New York Times, the United States could consider imposing secondary sanctions on countries that continue to do business with Iran, including purchasing its oil. However, it is unclear how the Trump administration plans to address the situation with China. The Treasury Department has sanctioned independent Chinese refineries that buy Iranian oil but has refrained from imposing large-scale sanctions on Chinese financial institutions that facilitate such transactions.
Amid this context, the Iranian currency hit a new historic low on Monday. The rial fell to 2.02 million per U.S. dollar at the opening of trading in the unofficial free market. The official rate of the Central Bank of Iran was around 1.5 million rials per dollar, but most Iranians pay the market rate.
The currency was already under pressure even before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, with double-digit inflation and negative growth, but it has been marking new historic lows over nearly six months of war.
Thus, Iranians find basic goods increasingly unaffordable. Since the start of the war, rice has risen about 60% and beef prices are more than 150% higher. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that GDP will contract by more than 5%.
So far, economic pressure has not yet translated into political pressure. For example, Iran still retains a strategic advantage with its attacks and threats against ships in the Strait of Hormuz that have brought maritime traffic to an almost complete standstill, harming the global economy and piling pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of the upcoming November legislative elections.
As a result, the war has become a struggle for control of the strait, through which in peacetime one-fifth of the world’s traded oil passed. Iran now refuses its full reopening unless it can charge ships.
In fact, Tehran warned Sunday that vessels accused of violating its transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz could face sanctions including detention or confiscation, indicating potential risks for shipping through one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
In a series of posts on X, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), controlled by the Iranian state, stated that vessels violating what it described as Iranian agreements governing transit through the Strait of Hormuz could face “fines, seizure, or confiscation” during future voyages.
The authority urged cargo owners shipping from or to the Persian Gulf to review what it called a list of “non-compliant vessels” before chartering ships to avoid potential problems.
And in response to U.S. threats, Iran’s top security official threatened to halt all oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned he would further block the strait if neighboring countries help the United States weaken Tehran’s economy.
Despite the above, cracks have already begun to appear within the Iranian regime. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran “cannot continue the war forever.”
During two appearances in Tehran on Sunday, Pezeshkian defended the memorandum of understanding Iran reached with the United States in June, despite the alleged reservations of Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Jamenei.
“Someday a decision will have to be made to save the country from the state of ‘neither war nor peace,’” Pezeshkian said.
Pezeshkian stated that all those directly involved in the negotiations believed the memorandum was the best way forward. “By implementing this memorandum, we will be able to solve problems with logic and dignity,” he said, according to statements collected by the state news agency IRNA.
The Iranian president has frequently warned about the economic and social consequences of the conflict with the United States, which has sometimes put him at odds with more hardline figures within the leadership.
“We must be on the side of the people. If we cannot serve them and convince them that we all belong to the same land and the same country, then, even if we possess the greatest military power, we will be defeated,” he said on Sunday.
He added that the government was doing everything possible to “guide inflation, public problems, people’s livelihood, jobs, the future, and people’s lives toward dignity and pride.”
In one of his appearances, Pezeshkian was accompanied by Ayatollah Seyyed Hassan Jomeini, grandson of Ruhollah Jomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic.
“Sometimes, a sensible compromise can achieve more than hundreds of wars,” Jomeini said.
According to CNN, analysts observe a growing debate among leaders on how to address the conflict with the United States, with some hinting that Iran should now negotiate from a position of strength before its economic crisis worsens further, while the most hardline sectors of the security apparatus continue to reject dialogue.
On the other hand, the Chief of Staff of the Army and head of Pakistan’s Defense Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was scheduled to travel to Tehran this Monday to hold talks with senior Iranian officials, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Sunday.
This is Munir’s third visit to Iran this year, as Islamabad continues its efforts to mediate to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran.
