The United Nations (UN) announced this Wednesday a new analysis from its World Food Programme (WFP) stating that the strengthening of El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people into hunger by the end of 2027.
A situation that, in its view, could cause significant deterioration in 45 countries already facing vulnerability.
As noted by the UN, this climatic phenomenon would peak between September and December 2026, but its effects could extend through much of 2027 due to the impact on agricultural cycles and future harvests.
According to the organization, droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures are already affecting some communities, while others could face more adverse conditions during upcoming planting and harvesting seasons.
According to the UN presentation, the WFP analysis focuses on 45 countries where El Niño could significantly alter rainfall, temperatures, and the frequency of droughts and floods.
Together, the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise from about 225 million to 274 million, an approximate increase of 22%.
The program also noted that the 2015-2016 El Niño episode affected the food security of between 60 and 100 million people, demonstrating the magnitude the phenomenon can reach when coinciding with contexts of poverty, conflict, or economic fragility.
Among the regions with the greatest risks are Latin America and the Caribbean, where more than 16 million people could see their food security deteriorate. Meanwhile, Central America would register the highest proportional increase among all analyzed areas: 83.1%.
The WFP also points out that Eastern and Southern Africa face significant risks, especially in countries where upcoming rainy seasons are crucial for food production. In these areas, more than 18 million people could suffer a deterioration in their food situation, representing a 26% increase.
As the UN explains, the southern part of the African continent is very vulnerable due to the dependence of many families on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. A dry or irregular season can quickly reduce food production and household incomes.
In Asia and the Pacific, it is estimated that an additional 8.2 million people could face acute food insecurity, while in West and Central Africa the figure would increase by about 12%, affecting nearly six million more people, as detailed by the organization.
