According to new assessments from United States intelligence services, Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test the determination of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) with a limited attack against an allied country in the coming years, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The reports, described by government officials, outline possible scenarios that range from cyberattacks to the deployment of unidentified armed groups or a small-scale ground incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank.
The analysis is known in a context of shortages of certain critical munitions that the armed forces of NATO member countries would need to face Russia or China in a possible future war.
The Wall Street Journal also noted that the U.S. has drastically reduced its reserves of these weapons due to shipments to Ukraine following the Russian invasion, as well as the U.S. conflict with Iran.
Among the reserves at risk are long-range precision strike missiles and Army tactical missile systems, as well as short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, according to other officials who spoke to the newspaper.
Previously, U.S. assessments held that Putin would avoid provoking a NATO country while still fighting in Ukraine. However, that outlook changed earlier this year as Russia faces increasing pressure over the conflict with Kyiv.
Ukrainian drones are causing increasing damage to Russian forces and the oil industry, while Russian troops are only making limited advances amid numerous casualties.
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Sources in Washington consider that the Russian leader, cornered on the battlefield and under internal pressure to achieve victory, could become more dangerous when he feels backed into a corner.
According to officials, Putin’s potential goal in any such action, even while the war in Ukraine continues, would be to fracture the NATO alliance.
On this, Heather Conley, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the newspaper that “the unknown is how the United States would respond in that case. It has always been a goal (of Russia) to question NATO’s credibility and separate the United States from its allies.”
The recent investigation has already raised concern, especially after Russian cruise missiles fell in Poland and drones entered Romanian airspace, including one that struck an apartment building.
Such intelligence reports place the possible timeframe for any Russian move between this northern autumn and 2029.
And although the likelihood of a limited ground incursion remains low, it increases over time, officials said.
