U.S. intelligence warned that Russia could attack a NATO country within weeks to test the alliance’s resolve. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials believe Russia could attempt to escalate tensions through a small ground incursion or by launching cyberattacks in Eastern Europe at any time between this fall (northern hemisphere) and 2029.
Read more United States court rules that Trump must ask Congress for permission to remodel the White House
The assessments, described by U.S. officials to the newspaper, come amid a shortage of certain critical munitions that the armed forces would need to face Russia or China in a possible future war. At-risk stockpiles include long-range precision missiles and Army tactical missile systems, as well as short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, according to other officials.
U.S. and European leaders increasingly see signs that Russia is conducting probing attacks to test NATO’s resolve. For example, a Russian missile struck Poland last week, and an explosive drone was found at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany on Tuesday. The drone is believed to have targeted a Ukrainian plane carrying weapons.
According to U.S. officials consulted by The Wall Street Journal, Putin’s goal in attacking NATO during an ongoing war with Ukraine, if it occurs, would be to fracture the alliance.
“The unknown is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Wall Street Journal, referring to a possible Russian incursion. “It has always been Russia’s objective to question NATO’s credibility and separate the United States from its allies.”
Reports say the likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited ground incursion—is low but increases over time. “This action has always been considered extremely unlikely, as it would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense. However, Article 5 is not as clear regarding NATO’s response to cyber or hybrid threats,” the newspaper noted.
“This has always been NATO’s challenge: responding to an attack that does not fit Article Five, and it is true that, so far, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate the conflict,” Conley said. For example, when Russia launched a series of cyberattacks against Estonia in 2007, the country chose to manage the crisis bilaterally.
The Wall Street Journal indicated that officials in Washington previously believed an attack against a NATO ally would not occur due to Russia’s concern over its war in Ukraine. This new conviction of U.S. intelligence coincides with a chorus of similar warnings issued by European officials in recent months.
For example, in June, the head of the German army, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, warned that Russia could have the capability to attack Alliance countries within the next three years.
Read more Is it menopause? What is really behind women’s loss of sexual desire
Along the same lines, last month, The Telegraph reported that European and U.S. intelligence services had detected signs that Russia was considering an armed provocation on Polish territory, missile or drone attacks against critical infrastructure, or false flag attacks to try to blame Ukraine.
For months, leaders of Poland and the Baltic states have spoken about the growing threat Russia poses to NATO’s eastern flank.
On Thursday, the Lithuanian defense minister warned that the Kremlin planned to use Ukrainian-made drones to attack the Baltic countries. Robertas Kaunas stated that Moscow could use a “false flag” attack in an attempt to divide Europe and weaken support for Ukraine.
Later on Thursday, Wes Streeting, the British defense secretary, warned that alleged Russian provocations against the United Kingdom were just the “tip of the iceberg.” The minister was referring to the Russian warship Neustrashimy, which conducted a live-fire exercise in the English Channel, not far from Plymouth, last month. About 2,900 soldiers from eight NATO member states participate in these exercises.
According to the latest intelligence assessments disseminated through NATO, Putin could opt for political interference, sabotage, or other hybrid tactics, given that militarily defeating the alliance is too great a challenge, sources told The Telegraph.
Colonel Martin O’Donnell, NATO spokesperson, told the newspaper that the alliance was “ready to deter and defend as necessary,” adding that the alliance “is always analyzing and preparing for any possible scenario.”
Berlin launched an anti-terrorism investigation after the drone, which carried a Semtex device, was discovered near the Antonov Airlines plane shortly before midnight, forcing the airport to close.
The airport, located in eastern Germany, plays a key role in transporting military material—including that destined for the German army and NATO allies—and serves as a base for Antonov planes. NATO stated it was aware of the attack.
