Donald Trump faces two threats that put his Republican Party at risk ahead of the midterm elections and could overshadow the results of his second administration. According to an analysis published by CNN, the president is in a more vulnerable position against Iran than any president since Democrat Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), while the impact of the war on energy prices worsens voters’ economic perception ahead of the November legislative elections.
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Just like in the 1979 hostage crisis, which destroyed Carter’s popularity and directly contributed to his electoral defeat in 1980, today the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that could increase on Trump affecting the course of the midterm elections. A week ago, the White House team anticipated an imminent agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Tehran imposed new demands.
In 1980, Iran pressured a U.S. election after the hostage crisis that began on November 4, 1979, when Iranian students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 American citizens for 444 days. Forty-six years later, the hostage role is occupied by the oil export route through the Strait of Hormuz. The regime thus has another point of pressure in the middle of the election season, while the American electorate—just as with Carter—blames Trump for the economic repercussions.
With the return of conflicts after the brief ceasefire in July, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. again exceeded $4 per gallon. Added to this are affordability difficulties in housing and health, CNN pointed out.
Meanwhile, Trump officials insist that the economic burden will ease once the Strait of Hormuz is opened. But those comments could strengthen Iran’s position in the negotiation. Tehran hardened its demands and included the end of the U.S. maritime blockade, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, compensation for war damages, and the lifting of sanctions.
This is an agreement that Trump cannot accept, so Iran could be overreaching in its demands, the American network reported. If Trump loses patience and relaunches the war, he would double down on an unpopular conflict and provoke an even worse economic reaction, it warns.
But the U.S. president seeks to regain the initiative. He told Axios that he expects the economic impact of the blockade to begin to be felt. “We are handling it quietly,” he said on Sunday. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money.”
Then, he emphasized that Iran is in a “very precarious economic situation” and lacks funds to pay its troops. “Everything will be resolved. It always is. It’s like a game of chess,” Trump told Axios.
Trump has already weakened the Iranian Armed Forces, delayed its nuclear program with airstrikes last year, and hit its defense industrial base. Now, he would be betting on the resilience of the U.S. economy to come out ahead against Iran’s. However, several analysts—CNN noted—consider that Iran is more willing to impose suffering on its population while its leaders pursue their existential confrontation with the United States, and that a regime collapse looks unlikely in Trump’s short political term.
While the scenario complicates in the Middle East, the internal political environment for Republicans also worsens. And the leader of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement seems unaware of the situation.
Several of Trump’s social media posts seem to show a president completely disconnected from reality, especially regarding the midterm elections, according to CNN. He posted photos sharing golf days with South African golfer Gary Player, another about modeling a new green on one of his courses, and messages about a futuristic drone port in the ballroom he plans to build in the White House, the renovation of the reflecting pool at the Lincoln monument, and two Washington statues recently covered with gold paint. He also called himself the winner over inflation but appeared more like a president interested in leaving physical works than offering ideas for national renewal, the TV network commented.
In any case, the weekend did bring a victory for Trump. The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, as Attorney General. But it is a triumph that would please him more than his supporters. Republicans also left Washington after acknowledging that the voting restrictions bill—one of the flagship initiatives of Trump’s second term, which sought to require citizenship proof from voters and restrict mail-in voting—will not pass due to lack of necessary votes.
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Another foreign policy setback was added. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the 15-point plan for Hamas disarmament in Gaza, which the White House considered advanced.
Several polls have shown that Trump sank the traditional advantage of the Republican Party regarding citizen evaluation on certain issues. In two central areas where they have historically maintained control—national security and the economy—they are now being surpassed or face a technical tie with the Democrats.
The president also denies how voters feel. “They’re not mad at me, they’re mad at the Republicans,” he told Punchbowl News in an interview last week.
In recent weeks, however, Democrats might be giving him a chance. Recent victories by progressive and democratic socialist candidates—such as the win in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by Dr. Abdul El-Sayed or the arrival of Zohran Mamdani as New York mayor—fuel Trump’s claims that there is a wave of “left-wing extremism” in the North American country.
The possibility of victory for Republicans and the Trump administration would therefore be that Democrats are risking Congressional seats by nominating candidates who alienate moderate voters.
Progressive sectors, on the other hand, believe the confusing scenario opens an opportunity among voters who reject both Trump and the moderate Democratic establishment, especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House.
Republicans also cannot expect immediate internal relief from the eventual end of the war. Official data show that the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, which means a new blow to the White House and Republican reelection campaigns.
The White House is not wrong in maintaining that the U.S. economy is resilient, although high food and housing prices, along with wages that fail to keep pace with sustained increases, explain why much of the population does not recognize the economic boom that Trump claims.
This gap between the White House’s reading of the economy and the citizen experience is a recurring political trap, caused by an official discourse that does not match what people perceive.
“The key point is that, if you look at the economy overall, things really, really are booming,” said Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. Hassett argued that last month’s job losses reflected the end of temporary jobs linked to the World Cup final and that teachers took July as summer break.
Calibrating a positive message about the economy, however, is one of the most difficult tasks in politics. In recent U.S. history, this factor defeated John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, the Democrats’ midterm campaigns during Obama’s government in 2010, and caused the failure of Biden and Harris’s campaigns in 2024.
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