After a nail-biting count, Icelanders voted to remain outside the European Union, according to the results of the tight referendum on Sunday, rejecting the government’s initiative to resume accession negotiations and aligning with those who stated that Iceland’s fishing waters were too important to put at risk. The result is a severe setback for the community bloc, which aimed to incorporate a new net contributor, as well as strengthen its presence in the Arctic, a region of growing geopolitical interest.
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In Saturday’s referendum, 52.8% of the votes cast were against the government’s proposal to negotiate with Brussels, 47.2% in favor, and 82.5% of registered voters participated, according to public broadcaster RUV and other Icelandic media.
Of the six constituencies, only the two in central Reykjavik, the capital, had a majority in favor, while rural areas and Reykjavik suburbs voted against.
According to RUV, some votes from one constituency were still to be counted, but this is not expected to change the outcome.
The Arctic island of 400,000 inhabitants has been debating whether to join the EU for more than a decade and was initially expected to narrowly support holding accession negotiations, but opinion polls this month showed that views had changed.
The vote will end this long-debated issue, more than a decade after a Eurosceptic government ended negotiations with the EU, highlighted The Associated Press.
“It is quite clear that this matter will not advance under this government,” said Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir at her first press conference after the voting result, considering her final decision the “natural course of events.”
For now, the prime minister says she has exchanged messages with António Costa, President of the European Council, and emphasized that Brussels, regardless of the referendum result, is aware of her desire to “maintain a strong relationship.”
Saturday’s vote was held in the shadow of repeated threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to control nearby Greenland, which led some voters to favor the idea of European solidarity. Although Iceland is a NATO member, its supporters said they would have greater protection from their neighbors if Trump made similar threats against the volcanic island.
Iceland’s left-wing coalition government, elected in 2024, brought forward the EU referendum planned for next year after Trump mistakenly mentioned Iceland four times when talking about his plans for Greenland. Fears were reinforced by statements from the U.S. ambassador in Reykjavik, William Long, who even called the island the “future 52nd state.”
Frostadóttir, who campaigned in favor of the measure, expressed hope that the result would not divide the nation.
“I do not perceive resentment,” she told RUV before the final vote count. “I know there are those who are very upset, but I have spoken with a wide group of people from across the country and people are quite open to different outcomes.”
The government presented EU membership as protection against trade wars and rivalry in the Arctic, and portrayed the referendum as a unique opportunity. Prime Minister Frostadóttir said a “No” would end the debate while her center-left coalition was in power.
But, “this is a clear setback for Brussels,” a EU diplomat told Reuters, adding that fishing and independence issues had been decisive.
The influential fishing sector led the opposition to the referendum for fear that the bloc’s common fisheries policy would allow Spanish, Dutch, and other countries’ trawlers into their valuable waters.
Descendants of the Vikings who settled in Iceland have lived off the sea for centuries, and abundant catches of cod, haddock, and capelin are fundamental to their national identity. Iceland gained independence from Denmark in 1944 and prides itself on its resistance to larger and richer European nations, winning the so-called Cod Wars against Britain in the 1970s over its fishing grounds, recalls The Associated Press.
The overnight vote count kept the nation on edge, as the “Yes” initially took the lead before finally tipping in favor of the opposition. At dawn, a margin of just a few hundred votes separated both sides, before the difference increased as more votes were counted in areas of the country where the opposition was stronger.
Opponents focused, besides fishing, on the fact that Iceland already benefits from belonging to the EU single market and the Schengen area, without the sovereignty concessions that full membership inevitably entails. They argued that Iceland’s voice would be silenced in the large European Parliament and that it would be better off negotiating its own trade agreements, like the one it has with China.
Supporters argued that EU membership would reduce inflation and interest rates, and that the euro would bring greater stability than the volatile Icelandic krona. They added that it was also beneficial for the country to strengthen ties with its European neighbors to address cross-border issues such as climate change.
Had the proposal been approved, it would have been a preliminary step to reactivate the long negotiation process with the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, to discuss topics ranging from the economy to human rights. Any negotiated agreement would have had to be approved by voters.
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In Brussels, some officials had expressed hope that a vote in favor of Iceland’s accession could mitigate skepticism towards EU enlargement and strategically strengthen the bloc when Arctic security becomes a priority, Reuters noted.
Iceland, a NATO member state but without a permanent army of its own, also debated whether EU membership could enhance the country’s security, given that President Donald Trump has questioned the United States’ commitment to the military alliance.
Trump has also repeatedly expressed his desire to acquire Greenland, another Arctic island.
However, for some Icelanders, fishing was a higher priority than security.
According to data, this sector is one of Iceland’s most important, representing 15% of GDP in direct and indirect contributions, and about 40% of export revenues.
Although Frostadóttir’s government set resource management, quota allocation, and restrictions on foreign ownership as non-negotiable red lines, and despite Commissioners Costas Kadis (Fisheries) and Marta Kos (Enlargement) promising flexibility on this, Icelanders chose to safeguard exclusive control of their waters.
The island nation first applied for EU membership in 2009, when a financial crisis hit its small and vulnerable economy. A Eurosceptic government ended negotiations in 2013.
Before Saturday’s referendum, finances were again a central issue, as Iceland has dealt with high inflation and elevated interest rates.
“Yes” supporters said EU membership, and possibly adopting the euro, could ease the situation. Iceland’s central bank interest rate is 8%, compared to the European Central Bank’s 2.25%.
“It would not solve Iceland’s structural problems, but it could become a catalyst for a stronger economy,” said chief economist Vilhjalmur Hilmarsson of Viska, one of Iceland’s largest unions.
Opposition leader Gudrun Hafsteinsdottir, who led the “No” campaign, said economic arguments were exaggerated. “These are not problems Brussels will solve for us. They are problems Icelandic politicians must solve,” she said.
After coming to power less than two years ago, Frostadóttir’s government announced its intention to hold a referendum in 2027. However, Donald Trump’s threats regarding nearby Greenland led the prime minister to accelerate plans and call the consultation earlier than expected.
For the EU, incorporating Iceland would have significantly strengthened its position in a region where powers like the U.S., Russia, and China compete to expand their influence. In recent years, the Arctic has become an increasingly contested arena due to melting ice, the opening of new maritime routes, and the struggle for its natural resources.
Despite the referendum result, Iceland will remain one of the EU’s closest partners, highlights Radio France Internationale (RFI). “No” supporters have also pointed out that Iceland has maintained a close relationship with the EU for decades through the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows it to participate in much of the single market.
With inflation above 5% and interest rates at 8%, Iceland displaced Switzerland a few months ago as the most expensive country in the world, according to Viska.
This model, also followed by Norway, also means that Reykjavik has adopted approximately three-quarters of the European regulations it already complies with.
A favorable referendum result would not have guaranteed Iceland’s accession to the community club, but only the start of a process to negotiate the terms of a possible integration. Once an agreement was reached, Icelandic citizens would have voted in a second consultation. The “No” victory abruptly halts the possibility of Iceland becoming the 28th EU member, notes the Spanish newspaper El País.
Had Frostadóttir’s government’s intention succeeded, Iceland would have become the first member to join the EU since Croatia in 2013, as well as the only net contributor to join the Union since 1995, when Sweden, Finland, and Austria did, the media added.
