When on Tuesday night the state attorney general, Republican Ken Paxton, won the Texas Senate primaries, he excited not only President Donald Trump and the base of his followers, known as MAGA, but also pleased the Democrats, who believe that the seat is now not only competitive but can be won with their candidate, state representative James Talarico.
For years, Democrats have had the idea of being able to win a major statewide election in Texas, a state known to be Republican, but election after election they have fallen far short of their goal.
Now it seems they are close, and much of their optimism centers on Talarico, a charismatic state representative who has quickly become a rising star within the party, who is in a privileged position to attract not only his followers but also independents and moderate Republicans.
At the same time, Democrats claim that Paxton’s political disadvantages—from his legal troubles to his impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023—give them confidence heading into the elections.
According to The New York Times, there is another reason why Democrats could achieve a statewide victory for the first time in three decades: demographics. Texas is one of the most diverse states in the country, and national polls show that the party is gaining ground among young and non-white voters, especially Hispanic voters.
In theory, the newspaper indicated, these national demographic trends should push Texas to the left and make it a key state. Recent national polls indicate that Trump may have lost support among Hispanic voters, mainly due to high gasoline and food prices. A New York Times/Siena poll showed that Democrats led Republicans among registered Hispanic voters, with 54% support versus 24% for Republicans.
“I think he has a good chance,” billionaire investor Mark Cuban told The Hill. “He has done an exceptional job attracting both Democrats and, more importantly, independents.” “He just has to keep doing what he’s doing,” he added.
Minutes after the state attorney general’s victory was announced, Talarico posted his first campaign video for the elections, in which he called Paxton “the most corrupt politician in the United States.”
“If the people unite to defeat the most corrupt politician in the United States, we can defeat this whole corrupt system,” Talarico said in the video. “We can start reforming the economy. We can start raising our wages, lowering our taxes, reducing our expenses. We can finally make progress. It’s time to unite: the people against Ken Paxton.”
Texas has been a Republican stronghold for years. No Democrat has won a statewide office there since 1994. And Trump, who supported Paxton in the final days of the primary campaign, won Texas by nearly 14 points in the 2024 elections.
Now, Talarico has surpassed Paxton in almost every poll conducted, including a YouGov survey published last month in which Talarico led Paxton by more than 8 points.
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Democrats are also delighted with Talarico, praising his calmness at a time when politics is increasingly perceived as chaotic. They highlight his naturalness when talking about religion and quoting Scripture, as well as what a strategist described as his ability to “speak like a normal person.”
They also point to Talarico’s appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast as proof of his ability to communicate fluently in long, unscripted situations, which often pose a challenge for politicians.
On his podcast, American pollster John Zogby noted that Paxton’s overwhelming victory in the Republican primaries over Senator John Cornyn, an establishment party figure, implied a deep division within the community.
Although he endorsed the combative Texas attorney general, he was not so sure that he could convince his supporters or establishment members to back Cornyn.
Signs of Democratic strength are not limited to polls. Since 2024, Democrats have far outperformed Kamala Harris’s results in areas with a high concentration of Hispanic population in special elections, including Texas, and in regular elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
The Cook Report, a highly respected publication, changed the rating of the seat from likely Republican to leaning Republican.
For experts, Talarico can take advantage of voter discontent. “The current national environment is very unfavorable for the Republican Party,” Democratic strategist Anthony Coley told The Hill. “Is it going to be easy? No,” Coley continued. “But national conditions tend to favor Democrats in this contest.”
Coley, like other Democrats, pointed to the 2018 Texas Senate race, when the Democratic candidate, former Representative Beto O’Rourke, lost to Senator Ted Cruz (Republican) by 2.6 percentage points, the closest statewide election in decades.
It was a sign to Democrats that they could compete in a state like Texas. And now they place more confidence in Talarico. “I think he has a better chance than Beto,” a Democratic strategist told The Hill. “He understands that in a state like that he will have to raise enough money to appear on television as much as possible, something Beto did not do.”
