Dmytro Yefremov is an associate professor in the Department of International Relations at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla, one of the most prestigious academic institutions in Ukraine.
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His academic and research activity focuses on China’s foreign policy, international political economy, and contemporary global affairs. He has also conducted research and teaching stays at renowned international institutions, including Uppsala University, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, the University of Toronto, and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
He has worked as a lead researcher at the Center for International Studies of the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of his country.
Visiting Chile, he spoke with La Tercera about the current state of the war and the possibility of negotiations taking place.
What is currently happening in Crimea with the attacks in the Sea of Azov?
The Crimean peninsula was a very attractive tourist destination. But during the occupation, Russia heavily militarized this territory, placed many military objects, military infrastructure, and also supplied fuel and used it as a military base against Ukraine. So what Ukraine is now doing against Russia is using attack drones with missiles to isolate the Crimean peninsula, destroy all those military facilities, create difficulties for Russia to use this territory for military purposes. And with this, Ukraine is attacking Russian logistics. First, the fuel supply. Recently, Ukrainian drones with missiles attacked Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov and did so quite successfully.
And the other target in Crimea today is electricity, the energy generation facilities under Russian control. So, by destroying them during the summer, in the peak hot season, Ukraine tries to reduce the possibility of Russia using Crimea as a supply place. This causes some discomfort among the local population, but on the other hand, they can use the freedom to leave this territory. They were informed that it is not safe to stay in Crimea. And it is their personal decision whether to stay or leave, at least during this phase, during this military operation against the Russian forces on the peninsula.
Is there a possibility that Ukraine will recover Crimea in the current context?
For now, it is difficult to understand how things will develop because there are different opinions, even within the Ukrainian Army. Some people say it is possible to isolate the Crimean peninsula and also part of the occupied territory of Ukraine. And with this isolation force the Russian troops to leave this territory.
But on the other hand, some soldiers need to enter this territory and establish control over it. But for now, Ukraine lacks sufficient military troops for that. So it is not very likely that Ukraine can recover these territories, but it will create additional possibilities for Kyiv during peace negotiations with Russian representatives to change the situation and make them more open to reaching agreements.
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It has been noted that the balance has tilted in favor of Ukraine in the war. How do you assess the situation militarily?
At the beginning of the war, some prospects were built. And for now, it seems like a war of attrition. So, who will lose their resources and opportunities to keep fighting first and be willing to surrender? For a long time, Russia was considered a more dominant power, with more resources, more facilities. But during almost five years of war, those capabilities and opportunities for Russia have drastically decreased. And today, it is really not possible to mobilize the amount of resources they had available at the beginning of the war. Now they have a big gap in their state budget. They lack financial resources, and Ukraine is also doing a lot to make it difficult, to reduce the opportunities that the Russians have to finance the war. Attacking these oil supply facilities, logistical and military facilities, all those things cost money.
For now, Ukraine has the support of European countries, which helps to sustain and resist. And the change we observe now in 2026 has been a long strategy that Ukraine launched together with its allies, European partners to some extent, and Americans, even before Trump. So we launched these programs at the end of 2023 or beginning of 2024. And today, thanks to a scale effect, we have received these opportunities to defend ourselves more effectively and resist Russian attacks more effectively.
During the NATO meeting held in Turkey, the topic of a possible agreement came up again. What prospects do you see for this?
For now, Ukraine suffers greatly from military loss. And the war has already lasted almost five years and brings a lot of damage, much pain to the people, many difficulties, discomfort, and so on. But people in Ukraine understand that it is a matter of national survival, independence, and freedom, because the Russian state seems like a totalitarian state and the Ukrainian people, who are familiar with democratic values, with the way of life in European countries, do not agree with this type of government, nor with the relations between society and power. So Ukrainians are a people very oriented towards democracy and that is why we keep resisting. But, of course, it is increasingly difficult. And we depend a lot on external support.
At the beginning of the war, it was the United States and European countries who supported Ukraine. But for now, we see that the situation in the United States has changed. And there are some potential risks in the European Union, with the possibility that the power combination in some countries like Germany, like France, changes and becomes less favorable for Ukraine and for support to Ukraine. That is why, for Ukraine, it is more suitable to seek to freeze the conflict and the war now and seek some negotiations. Undoubtedly, Ukraine will not recognize the loss of territory, the Russian control over this territory. But there is really some space for negotiations on the Ukrainian side.
And will Russia want to negotiate?
On the other hand, we have Russia and the Russian president (Vladimir Putin) who does not want negotiations and considers his situation as bad for him personally, for his power and for the historical legacy he seems to try to create. That is why (Putin) does not want to start any negotiation and seems to want to create all the technical opportunities, take advantage of all opportunities to avoid real negotiations and real peace talks, because at any moment, stopping the war in the current situation, on the current front line, would seem like his failure and his defeat. He understands it perfectly and that is why he is not interested in stopping the war.
On the other hand, he also lives in a kind of information bubble. And it seems that he does not understand the situation very well. He still believes in the facilities and opportunities that Russia has to establish general control over Ukraine. And that is why he thinks it is not the right time to stop and start negotiations. So, (the ball) is completely on the Russian side. If a person decides to change his approach and opinion and start peace negotiations, then we will be able to see some progress and changes in the world.
