On August 29, during a meeting with staff and students at a university in Moscow, Vladimir Putin commented that orcas feed on polar bears.
“That is the food chain,” said the Russian president, adding that children should be taught this “so they understand what kind of world we live in and why we are carrying out this special military operation,” referring to the war against Ukraine.
The statement had no factual basis, as there is no record of an orca having hunted a polar bear. But the anecdote portrayed the worldview that guides the Russian leader, according to The Economist in an analysis about the Kremlin.
NATO countries watch with concern the direction Putin’s thinking is taking. The Russian Army has been stalled for years on the eastern Ukrainian front, with tens of thousands of monthly casualties including dead and seriously wounded. The war has turned into an exchange of drone and missile attacks that punish Ukraine and also cause visible damage inside Russia.
And Putin shows no signs of giving ground. The concern in Europe and the United States is that he seeks a way out of the tupik – the Russian word for dead end – as he has done in the past, and that this way out is a new escalation of the conflict.
Signs of concern in the West about a possible escalation accumulated in a few days. On August 25, CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow, in a trip that generated different versions. Some say he sought to warn Putin not to attack NATO countries. Others – noted the British magazine – believe he intended to show him an adverse outlook on the conflict in Ukraine and convince him to negotiate.
Three days later, Finland requested support from Sweden with warplanes and warships to monitor its border with Russia. Germany is preparing to publicly hold Moscow responsible for the August 4 drone attack on Leipzig airport, which would pave the way for new sanctions. Romania and Slovakia reported in August having thwarted a naval drone action against an oil platform and an arson attack against a drone factory.
Meanwhile, Putin broke his prolonged silence on Ukrainian attacks – increasingly successful – against Russian refineries and logistics centers, including warehouses of Wildberries, the country’s largest online retailer.
On August 22, he accused Ukraine of opening “Pandora’s box” and promised “retaliation in the most sensitive sectors of its economy.” That same day, before United Russia, the Kremlin’s party, he ruled out any possibility of ending the war. “The special military operation continues,” he assured. “We will only advance.”
Sources close to the Kremlin say that, after weeks of deliberation during the northern summer, Putin would have opted to intensify the conflict.
A close collaborator of the Russian leader stated that he probably interpreted Ratcliffe’s visit as a sign of American weakness, the same reading he made in November 2021 when Bill Burns, then CIA director under Joe Biden, traveled to Moscow to warn him about a possible invasion of Ukraine. However, three months later, the invasion took place.
“No one can know for sure what Putin is assessing, but his reasons for escalating, just like his original decision to invade, respond to internal calculations. His goal has always been to preserve power and, ultimately, his own life,” The Economist reported.
Inside Russia, tacit support for the war is increasingly eroded. Ukrainian airstrikes against refineries and e-commerce, combined with internet restrictions imposed by security services, have broken the appearance of normality that the Kremlin cultivated since 2022. The Levada Centre, the country’s most consulted independent pollster, recorded that 57% of Russians describe the current situation as “tense”, citing the war, the number of deaths, mobilization, drone attacks, and lack of prospects as their main reasons.
Trust in television propaganda is falling and young people post calls on social media to end the war. And Putin’s approval rating has been declining in recent months, according to the same research center.
Discontent is greater among the elites. An internal source said that the time lost in the war weighs more than the economy or the lack of military successes, because almost five years without a clear result would amount to a failure.
“There is a growing feeling that the tsar is exposed,” said another member of the Russian elite, quoted by the magazine. No economic or political problem is lethal for Putin, because he has resources and a repressive apparatus to sustain himself, but the perception of weakness matters.
Putin can formulate his goals with the language of geopolitics, but he moves according to the criminal logic of his own regime, which tolerates violence and does not forgive failure, The Economist points out.
He himself would believe that ending the war without achieving – at least – the complete annexation of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, would leave him physically exposed.
“They are going to hang me”, he told some of his close associates referring to the impossibility of achieving this goal, according to an internal source. Maintaining the conflict in its current form also solves nothing for the Kremlin.
“Scenarios driven by inertia are disadvantageous for the Kremlin,” warned a member of the Russian elite, because only economic resources are being consumed and political capital is being worn down.
There is no certainty about the form a new Russian offensive would take, but Western intelligence anticipates a more intense hybrid war and sabotage against Ukraine’s allies, with attacks on supply routes between Europe and the Ukrainian front and even against European factories producing military material for Kiev. They agree, however, that Putin seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation with NATO.
Inside Ukraine, the escalation would mean deepening what Russia is already executing. On August 30, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced it is preparing a massive attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, a move Kiev already expected as part of the offensive with which Moscow would seek to break Ukrainian will this winter.
On the ground front, Russian sources indicate that Putin is determined to send between 300,000 and 400,000 additional men.
The troop reinforcement will likely be completed through coercion of Russian regional governments and citizen coercion. The Kremlin is already testing this new forced recruitment system in Penza, a region 750 kilometers southeast of the Russian capital.
Putin could also harden repression against so-called “internal enemies” to show strength, more than due to a real threat to his power. Most likely, none of this will solve Russia’s structural problems and, instead, will deepen the population’s suffering and the country’s instability, The Economist noted.
Beijing’s support remains a central variable in the Kremlin’s calculations. On Monday, the summit marking the 25th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) began in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, an event that brought together leaders of 10 Asian countries under Beijing’s sphere of power. Among them, Russia.
In this context, but outside the summit, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and his Russian counterpart met.
Xi assured Putin that, under his “strategic direction and joint efforts,” the foundations of the bilateral relationship will be strengthened with more promising prospects, according to the Chinese state agency Xinhua.
“Uncertainties and unpredictable factors in the international situation have increased significantly,” Xi said during the meeting.
That bond, however, would have a limit. Finnish President, Alexander Stubb, said that China privately guaranteed him it would not allow Russia to use nuclear weapons, according to the European edition of Politico.
“This summer the Chinese Foreign Minister visited me and I raised the issue,” Stubb said. “He replied that they would never allow it. And I think that constitutes a strong deterrent.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Stubb in Helsinki on July 5, where they discussed the Russian invasion of Ukraine and European security.
The Finnish leader also downplayed the fear of a nuclear escalation or a direct Russian attack on NATO, a calculation that – he said – suits the Kremlin itself. “Russia wants Europeans to sit here debating: Will tension increase? Will nuclear weapons be used? Will Russia attack NATO and Europe?” questioned the Finnish leader.
“Stay calm, serene, and vigilant. Don’t dramatize, prepare for the worst to avoid it,” he recommended. He described Russian attempts to probe the alliance as “more provocations” rather than preparations for war, and emphasized that Russian troops remain immobilized in Ukraine while NATO deterrence makes a direct attack unlikely.
“I am sure we are approaching the day when it would be useful for Europeans to maintain more direct contact with Russia,” he said, “especially because we must avoid misunderstandings.” He clarified that the continent “has not yet reached that point” and that the immediate priority remains support for Ukraine. “You cannot simply silence dialogue. You have to open the conversation,” he concluded.
