Like other Argentine leaders in the past, Javier Milei used the Falklands card (Falkland for the British) during the week by stating that he would sanction companies working off the coasts of the territory.
In a televised speech, the president issued the threat making direct reference to the Sea Lion field, an offshore oil and gas project located north of the archipelago, which is being developed by the British company Rockhopper Exploration together with the Israeli Navitas Petroleum.
Milei said the project violated a United Nations resolution urging Argentina and the United Kingdom to desist from unilateral actions in the area while their dispute continued. “We will not allow it. If we allow it, we will be encouraging the British government to intensify the occupation of the islands and the exploitation of our resources,” he said in his address on Thursday night.
The libertarian leader also stated that the government would issue an emergency decree to expand defense resources and build a naval base in the nearby province of Tierra del Fuego. Argentina, which invaded the Falklands in 1982, continues to claim sovereignty over the islands.
Accompanied by his cabinet, Milei publicly said that the winds of change would favor Argentina’s claim over the islands. This, in a clear reference to comments made by Donald Trump, would suggest that Washington might review its entrenched neutrality regarding the Falklands.
When asked in an interview with GB News on Thursday whether the United States would come to the aid of the United Kingdom if Argentina tried to take over the islands, Trump avoided a direct answer and instead emphasized that the United Kingdom “has not been there to help me” with the war in Iran.
Downing Street’s response was simply to reiterate that the Falklands would remain a British overseas territory “as long as the islanders wish it.” “The islands are British and will remain so, because that is the position of the overwhelming majority of the islanders,” Minister Ed Miliband declared on X.
But Senator and former Security Minister of Milei’s government, Patricia Bullrich, assured that the Argentine government “is not willing” to accept the export of oil from the Falkland Islands.
Bullrich stated that the fact that there might be oil exploration or the first batch of oil exports in the coming months “is a challenge that Argentina is not willing to accept.” “We are not anti-business, but we want Argentine resources to serve Argentine growth,” she emphasized.
Shares of Rockhopper, which trades on London’s AIM secondary market, fell 5.6% in Thursday afternoon’s session, The Times reported. Stifel analysts told the newspaper that the turmoil “will probably calm down if the UK sends a damaged frigate to Hormuz.”
What project is Milei referring to? It is the drilling at the Sea Lion field expected to start early next year, with first production anticipated in March 2028. The first phase of the project is estimated to cost around US$2.1 billion.
The Times reported that last month, Rockhopper raised US$180 million to help finance the purchase of a second production vessel that could pump 125,000 barrels of oil per day from 2030, in addition to the 55,000 barrels per day expected from its first production vessel starting in 2028.
The Sea Lion field, discovered by Rockhopper in 2010, is located 219 kilometers north of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic and is estimated to contain the equivalent of about 900 million barrels of oil.
A Navitas spokesperson told The Times that they did not foresee recent events having a “significant effect” on the development of Sea Lion, including the completion schedule.
“The partnership operates under valid oil licenses legally granted by the Falklands government, a self-governing British overseas territory, and with the full and ongoing support of the UK government,” the spokesperson added.
The Falkland Islands government will receive a 9% royalty on revenues from the field and subsequently a 26% corporate tax on profits.
Experts consulted by various media pointed out that one of the reasons Milei issued this warning is the drop in his popularity, so the nationalist card is an effective tactic.
The leader faces a possible electoral challenge in 2027 from his vice president, Victoria Villarruel, with whom he is estranged and who is a pro-military activist for whom the Falklands are a priority issue.
Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno insisted last Monday that his “diplomatic” approach to the islands was more effective than that of Peronist governments, which, according to him, was “protest for protest’s sake.”
“We need more concrete diplomatic actions… to defend ourselves from the UK’s unilateral actions to exploit our natural resources,” he said.
British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting emphasized Britain’s “absolute and unwavering” commitment to the Falklands, adding emphatically that “Milei’s statement (on Thursday) tells us more about Argentina’s domestic politics.”
The Financial Times noted that Milei’s increasing dialogue with London has so far yielded few concrete results. The planned 2024 agreement to restore direct flights from Argentina to the islands has yet to be implemented.
Informal talks between Defense officials, through which Buenos Aires hoped to lift London’s restrictions on the sale of British arms to Argentina, have stalled due to repeated leadership changes in Milei’s Foreign Ministry, which was supposed to approve the talks.
Milei has yet to schedule the visit to London that his officials began discussing this year.
“Milei feels a great urgency because Trump will not be in office forever; Argentina will hold presidential elections next year (his approval rating is only 34%) and, more importantly, the Falklands will begin drilling for oil in just two years. The Sea Lion field has 1.7 billion barrels of proven reserves,” wrote The Telegraph columnist David Blair.
“It is true that Trump is angry with Britain for not supporting his misguided and failed war against Iran. But he is permanently furious with most of the world. He is reviewing Washington’s stance on the Falklands, just as he constantly reviews the US stance on practically everything. Under Trump’s administration, no policy is more than a social media post away from being revoked. So Milei is trying his luck. He will most likely fail and nothing will change, except that the Falklands will prosper thanks to oil sales,” he concluded.
