Those under 35 are starting to turn their backs on Javier Milei, and this could be a big problem for the Argentine president seeking re-election in 2027. Two polls published this week share the diagnosis: a wear and tear of the ruling party in sectors that were key to its victory in 2023, particularly the youth.
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A segment considered the most loyal to Milei coincides with being one of the most economically vulnerable, and at a time when part of the population is going into debt to make ends meet, the miracle promised by the libertarian crashes against reality.
The loss of popularity among young people is deduced from the comparison of different reports: one from Latam Pulse, and another from MYF Consultora, which released its National Public Opinion Monitoring in July. Two key points are highlighted in these studies: on one hand, the erosion of support for the government, and on the other, a growing anxiety about the economy, which remains the main factor driving public opinion.
The Latam Pulse report, produced by Bloomberg and AtlasIntel, sets Javier Milei’s disapproval at 62.4%. “This is the worst approval rating in the historical series included in the report and confirms a downward trend that the consultancy has been observing over the past few months,” notes the media outlet La Política Online. Among young people aged 16 to 24, this rate reaches 76.9%, while the range between 25 and 34 years reaches 71.9%. AtlasIntel’s measurements have gained relevance in recent years, as the consultancy anticipated Milei’s victory in 2023.
Another report, from the consultancy Zuban Córdoba y Asociados, shows that only 38% of young people currently support Javier Milei’s administration, compared to 48% or 50% support before last year’s elections.
Now, this is not limited to age, but also gender differences in support for Milei tend to disappear. While among men, the libertarian enjoyed more evident support than among women, today this figure is close: female disapproval of the president reaches 66.1%, against 58.5% male rejection. In this sense, the deterioration of support for the president comes from “traditional” sectors of his electorate.
Another interesting fact, this time from MYF Consultora, shows that approval among those under 40 only reaches 36.8%, while among older people it reaches 37.4%. At least for July, the difference between both segments dropped to one point, with young people being “the engine” of the libertarian campaign. Thus, the survey shows that the generational gap in support for the ruling party in Argentina has completely dissolved.
MYF Consultora points out the main reason behind this loss of electorate: economic discomfort, which appears in all responses. The main problem in the country, respondents say, is the increase in prices and tariffs, followed by corruption, unemployment, and poverty.
Regarding this, MYF Consultora director Mariel Fornoni explains to La Tercera the age factor in this drop in popularity of the occupant of the Casa Rosada: “The core segment, let’s say, of Milei’s sympathizers, remains those under 40 years old, but what happens is that perhaps he is not capturing the full attention of those entering the electoral market, let’s say, young people of 18, 20 years old.”
In that sense, the expert recalls that this group is the most fragile in the face of the economic ups and downs of Milei’s Argentina. “These young people today are the most vulnerable sectors, those suffering the most from the inability to pay rent, those suffering the most entering the labor market, those mostly in informal jobs,” she indicates.
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Gustavo Córdoba, director of the polling firm Zuban Córdoba, agrees that something is happening in young opinion: “It must be said that from the beginning Milei had a very notable gender difference in adhesion and support for the administration. Thus, male groups under 35 supported him, while women under 35 rejected giving him support or rated his administration negatively,” he details to La Tercera.
“Today what we can see, perhaps more clearly, is that we can separate young people into two large groups, from 16 to 24 years and from 25 to 30 or 35 years. Why do we make this separation? Because young people over 24, 25 and older, already have an entry into the formal economy, already have aspirations to grow patrimonially, economically and so on, and eventually the economic crisis derived from President Milei’s administration has caused them several problems, whether because they are unemployed, have only one job and it is not enough, or have two jobs and it is still not enough,” Córdoba points out.
The expert points to a promise that is not being fulfilled: “Come with me to break, that when we build something new, the economy will give you the benefit you seek.” “And the truth is that promise has not yet materialized and in that segment of young voters, perhaps middle class, lower or lower class, well, enduring or tolerating this policy without results is inconvenient for them,” he comments.
The situation is not easy for the young population, who have begun to go into debt both through informal channels and banks, not for luxuries but to buy food, the pollster points out, also recalling Milei’s statements on the matter. “The president has had really unsympathetic comments for this sector, like when he said ‘no one put a gun to their head’ for people to go into debt. Debt that is not to buy capital goods or physical goods, but food,” he notes.
For Fornoni, there is also the factor of corruption, which was precisely one of the advantages La Libertad Avanza had against Peronism in 2023: having never governed, it could boast a clean record. “It has to do with facts. That there have been alleged acts of corruption in officials very close to the government, when Milei’s slogan was to come to fight the caste, and there is an official who entered two years ago, who lived one way and today lives another, is the reflection that they did not break with the caste.”
Anyway, all polls read that there would be a “hard core” of libertarian voters, close to 40%, but that is already starting to deflate. The challenge for Milei, meanwhile, begins to be keeping his followers enchanted, and no longer just “expanding” his electoral base.
In that sense, the youth vote is key: “In the electoral roll, those under 35 represent approximately 40%, 42% of the roll, but if we take into account those who will actually vote, the group of young people under 35 rises to almost 50%,” Córdoba indicates, adding that this segment is the most decisive group and will surely define the winner in the next presidential election.
Fornoni, for her part, takes these new numbers with caution: “What must be taken into account is that accepting is not the same as voting, and for that, mobilization must be generated. So, one thing is that they approve what Milei does or are not against what Milei does, and another is that they are motivated when it comes time to vote.”
The simple opposition to Milei, of course, does not imply voting intention, and although voting is compulsory in Argentina, Fornoni assures that “it is working more like in countries that do not have compulsory voting, and people go if the candidate motivates them, if not, they decide not to go, because the penalties for not voting are very low.”
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