Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the United States would reduce military exercises with South Korea, a Washington ally since the 1950s, citing the cost; the fact that Seoul refused to participate in the war against Iran; and the desire not to upset Kim Jong-un, claiming his “very good relationship” with the dictator and stating that the maneuvers would send a “totally inappropriate and hostile” signal to North Korea.
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Finally, the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea were halved at Washington’s request, as reported by CNN this Tuesday.
The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, which began on Monday and was scheduled to last 10 days, will now end on Friday, August 21, according to the Armed Forces of both countries.
“Following the instructions of the President and the Secretary of War, the Department has substantially reduced the Ulchi Freedom Shield Exercise, while continuing training that enhances tactical capability,” a Pentagon official said.
“Live training exercises associated with it have been reduced, and some have been canceled or converted into simulations. These adjustments preserve essential readiness and training objectives,” the official added. “U.S. training objectives will not be affected.”
The South Korean Army stated that the decision to “partially adjust the duration and size” of the Ulchi Freedom Shield Exercise was made “at the request of the United States.”
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Tuesday that the military exercises were not intended “to increase tension on the Korean Peninsula,” but described them as “a defensive exercise” to maintain peace and protect lives. South Korea “will maintain a constant state of alert,” he added.
In a regular Cabinet meeting, Lee said that “national security will be further strengthened when the alliance is solid,” referring to the military alliance with the United States, according to The Associated Press.
“By strengthening our capabilities, our value and importance as allies will grow even more,” he added.
Despite the “substantial” reduction announced by Trump, North Korean authorities criticized the joint military maneuvers of the United States with South Korea on Wednesday, considering them a threat to regional security.
The maneuvers represent an “immediate and manifest threat” to North Korea as they “exacerbate tensions on the peninsula and lead it toward war,” they warned, according to reports from the state news agency KCNA.
In this regard, they warned that these exercises increasingly focus on “improving the allies’ ability to wage a real war and incorporate technologies such as artificial intelligence, the use of drones, and cyber capabilities.” Therefore, Pyongyang stated it will exercise its right to “legitimate defense” to “completely neutralize” what it called “military threats.”
The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise is a computer-simulated exercise designed to hone the allies’ ability to respond to potential regional security threats, such as North Korean aggression. The two countries usually conduct field training exercises during the simulation period.
The South Korean Army had previously stated that this year’s exercise would be of a similar scale to previous years, with the participation of about 18,000 South Korean soldiers.
The U.S. Army said it would incorporate lessons learned from recent conflicts, such as North Korea’s experiences on the Russia-Ukraine front. Local media reported that South Korea and the United States had planned 14 field training exercises.
The U.S. military exercise, along with similar joint war maneuvers to be held in the spring, is a fundamental pillar of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, dating back to the Korean War of 1950-1953. However, it is also a constant source of tension with North Korea, which has denounced the exercises as a rehearsal for war and responded with provocative missile tests.
“Once again, Trump seemed to be deliberately turning upside down everything the world thought it knew about American power and foreign policy values,” CNN commented after the decision to reduce military exercises with South Korea.
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“I don’t understand why they are getting so close to Kim Jong-un,” retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis told Kasie Hunt of the television network.
For Jung Chang Wook, director of the Korea Defense Study Forum in Seoul, Trump’s measure could lead the United States to reduce other regular military exercises with South Korea, which would be a severe blow to their joint operational capability.
Lee Illwoo, an expert at the Korea Defense Network, noted that the reduction of exercises will likely delay the planned transition to a system in which operational control in wartime would be under a binational command led by a South Korean general.
But beyond the impact of Trump’s decision in the military sphere, Michael Sobolik, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, considers that the White House occupant’s break with South Korea “projects weakness in the Pacific.”
“Trump’s particular view of international relations risks unintentionally strengthening America’s enemies. Undoubtedly, Kim is pleased by any sign of American weakness and will exploit any crack in trust between Washington and Seoul. More importantly is how this measure is perceived by Pyongyang’s northern neighbor,” Sobolik suggests.
According to the expert, “confusing allies and adversaries carries the risk of misinterpreting trust and threats, like a chef confusing sugar with salt. Trump needs to maintain deterrence in East Asia.”
“Two wars are already being fought in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. In response to the latter, the Pentagon recently redeployed the USS George Washington from the Indo-Pacific to the Persian Gulf to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln. Currently, there are no aircraft carriers in East Asia or nearby. This capability shortfall is exacerbated by the reduction of Tomahawk missiles and other long-range strike platforms the Pentagon would need in a scenario with China. Trump is combining a numerical problem with a judgment problem,” he states.
He adds: “The challenge posed by North Korea does not lie in the lack of presidents capable of negotiating or capricious partners in Seoul, but in Pyongyang’s communist ideology, Washington’s failure to prevent its nuclearization, and erratic policies that have swung between confrontation and conciliation.”
“Unwittingly, Trump is falling into that perverse pattern. In doing so, he projects weakness before Kim Jong-un’s northern neighbor and the most powerful dictator in East Asia. Canceling military exercises with South Korea will likely be an unfinished matter of Trump’s first term. The day may come when the president understands the wisdom of his former advisers, who advised him not to do so,” Sobolik concludes.
But Trump seems determined not to upset Kim Jong-un. In fact, according to U.S. officials cited by The Wall Street Journal, the Republican leader is pressuring his advisers to meet this fall with the North Korean leader, aiming to revive the crucial diplomatic initiative of his first term to convince Kim to abandon his country’s nuclear weapons program.
Officials indicated that Trump has privately discussed the possibility of arranging an in-person meeting with Kim during his next trip to Asia, which could take place in November when world leaders gather at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Shenzhen, China.
Seoul supports dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang in hopes of promoting stability in the region. However, analysts and U.S. officials say a bad deal could ultimately harm relations with regional allies like South Korea.
“It is about appeasing another despotic dictator, based on the mistaken idea that a personal relationship will achieve U.S. foreign policy goals,” said Bruce Klingner, former senior official at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on the Koreas.
“He has made it clear he wants to meet with Kim again,” said Victor Cha, North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “These exercises gave him the opportunity to do something concrete to show Kim he is serious about the meeting.”
But the Journal recalled that Trump attempted nuclear diplomacy with the autocrat during his first term. North Korea’s program has only strengthened since then.
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